An Old Resistance Hurdle Is Again and Could Stall Bitcoin’s Value Rally


  • Bitcoin clocked highs higher than $4,000 in excess of the weekend and ended past 7 days on a constructive observe, strengthening the short-expression bullish outlook.
  • The ongoing restoration rally, on the other hand, could pause all-around $4,000 or we may see a slide back again to key aid concentrations lined up at $3,775 and $3,658, as the bearish (downward sloping) 21-7 days uncomplicated relocating normal (SMA) is now lined up at $4,073. That SMA served as a rigid resistance past 12 months.
  • Bitcoin’s outlook as for each the day-to-day chart would convert bearish if price ranges see a UTC near underneath the Feb. 27 minimal of $3,658. That would open the doorways for a re-check of lows in close proximity to $3,300 noticed at the stop of January.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) four-7 days price rally now faces a former aid-turned-resistance stage that repeatedly capped gains in 2018.

The cryptomarket chief shut (UTC) yesterday at $3,965 on Bitstamp, symbolizing a 1.73 p.c acquire on a weekly basis, in accordance to Bitstamp information. That was the fourth straight weekly acquire – the longest winning streak considering the fact that April 2018.

With solid volumes backing bitcoin’s go to a 3-7 days large of $4,040 in excess of the weekend, the case for an extension of the ongoing restoration rally from lows January lows appears to be like solid.

Even so, a lengthy-expression bearish-to-bullish development transform higher than $4,236 may remain elusive for several weeks, as the 21-month uncomplicated relocating normal (SMA) – a complex line which acted as solid resistance in 2018 – is now located at $4,073.

A lot more importantly, the normal line is nonetheless trending south in favor of the bears, which is all the a lot more motive why bitcoin is fewer likely to breach it with a 90-degree rally.

Notably, the bullish momentum is currently beginning to wane: Bitcoin is having difficulties to keep on to gains higher than $4,000 for the 3rd day.

As of writing, the crypto market place chief is changing fingers at $3,955 on Bitstamp, owning strike a large of $4,016 earlier nowadays.

Weekly chart

As noticed higher than, bitcoin charted bullish greater lows together the 21-7 days SMA all through the 2016-2017 uptrend. The normal aid was breached on Jan. 29, 2018 and has reversed rallies ever considering the fact that.

So, a convincing go higher than that SMA, now at $4,073, could be thought of an early indicator of a lengthy-expression bullish reversal.

It is typically observed that markets are inclined to consolidate submit-crack higher than a downward sloping MA and select up a solid bid when the normal has lose bearish bias (bottomed out).

For occasion, BTC jumped higher than the descending 100-day MA on Feb. 19, but the follow-through swiftly fizzled out in close proximity to $4,200 and price ranges fell back again to the lengthy-expression MA on March 4. A lot more importantly, bitcoin lacked obvious directional bias and rose back again to $4,000 only following the normal turned flat on March 14.

So, any crack higher than the 21-7 days SMA wants to be seen with warning as lengthy as the normal line is trending south.

Even more, a recurring rejection at the normal line could invite marketing pressure, as noticed in November.

Everyday chart

Bitcoin shut higher than $3,950 (Mar. 9 large) on Saturday, bolstering the short-expression bullish setup as indicated by both of those the ascending trendline and the upward sloping 5- and 10-day MAs.

So considerably, on the other hand, the follow-through has been anything at all but bullish, which adds credence to the likelihood of a pause prompt by the weekly chart.

Disclosure: The author retains no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin impression via Shutterstock charts by Trading View