The Weirdest Prediction Marketplaces on Augur Correct Now


Do you believe that in God? Would you put your cryptocurrency holdings on it?

Augur, an ethereum-primarily based platform for betting on the consequence of actual-earth activities, aims to be a repository of group-sourced awareness for journalists, investors and policymakers, as well as an powerful device for hedging versus adverse outcomes.

But it can be also develop into one other matter: a hilarious spot to troll.

Forums for questioning a greater energy are just one of many markets that at this time exist on the decentralized prediction current market, designed by the non-profit Forecast Foundation and funded with one of the world’s very first token profits in 2015.

That token sale took spot right before folks were even applying the phrase preliminary coin featuring, or ICO, to refer to these styles of crypto fundraising techniques, and the job went as a result of the ICO increase in beta – with the builders tests and vetting one of the most hotly-anticipated launches in crypto history.

As these kinds of, when it launched on ethereum’s reside blockchain very last month, it briefly surpassed the most famous decentralized software, CryptoKitties, in conditions of the quantity of buyers. While enthusiasm has due to the fact dipped markedly.

So significantly, most of Augur’s markets – and the extensive the vast majority of the trades on the platform – deal with comparatively vanilla subject areas like the outcomes of sporting activities or the selling prices of crypto assets. But a couple of consider a certainly dark convert, gauging the chance that notable figures will be assassinated or that terrorist attacks and mass shootings will happen.

Other folks, though, are just goofy, evoking the cryptocurrency community’s peculiar obsessions, wild rumors and the kinds of riddles a bridge troll may possibly check with right before permitting you move.

So here’s to the Augur buyers who have selflessly donated their time and possibly their cash – current market creators publish a bond in the platform’s native REP tokens, which they get rid of if a current market is considered “invalid” because the consequence are unable to be verified – all just to brighten their fellow users’ days.

In no particular order, right here are a couple of of the weirdest markets on Augur nowadays.

Vitalik’s girlfriend

Vitalik Buterin, creator of ethereum, the world’s second-most beneficial blockchain, enjoys the kind of wealth and notoriety couple of 24-12 months-olds have.

But does he have a girlfriend? And if not now, when?

These thoughts have vexed the crypto community ample to spawn a committed post – one which is seemingly been viewed over 18,000 periods. And now, indelibly etched into Buterin’s have generation, you will find an Augur current market for it way too.

Buterin himself need to confirm the romance, in accordance to the market’s conditions, and the couple need to have been with each other for at minimum one total working day.

It can be worth noting right here that (as with many Augur markets) no person has bet on this one at the time of writing.

Are you there, God?

Ostensibly, Augur markets need to be primarily based on verifiable activities, but Augur is a platform with out moderators, so which is develop into more of a guideline.

As stated over, the ideal illustration: another person has posed the concern, “Does god exist?”

They are seemingly in no hurry to come across out, as the current market expires at the starting of 2020. And the resolution source need to be the “news media.”


The heathen buyers that initiated the current market give the creator of the universe a 10 p.c possibility of existing. No money is at stake at the time of writing.

SAFU or not SAFU

By natural means, Augur buyers haven’t handed up on the possibility to sprinkle the platform with their particular taste of memes.

Titled “Resources ARE SAFU?” one current market references a bizarre – but well-liked – YouTube mail-up of Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao’s endeavor to reassure buyers that their crypto holdings on the platform were risk-free.

Wanting at the market’s specifics, on the other hand, it seems not to be a joke, but a critical – if vaguely worded – concern about no matter if Binance will be hacked: “Will the safety of https://www.binance.com/ be negatively afflicted these kinds of that there is a newsworthy reduction of money?”

The current market expired with out any bets owning been placed.

Does not compute

Opposition is stiff, but the trolliest current market at this time lively on Augur may perhaps well be this restatement of the liar paradox – the form of query one may possibly use to incapacitate a murderous supercomputer.


For the uninitiated, the assertion “this sentence is phony” is a paradox because, if the assertion is, in simple fact, phony, that indicates it checks out. So it can be real.

If the assertion is real – by remaining phony – then it violates its have premise: it has to be phony.

Thinking about this paradox goes back again to at minimum the fourth century BCE, earning it one of humanity’s longest-jogging time wasters. Introducing a pinch of round meta-salt to this concoction, the current market creator built the position of reference for this current market Predictions.World wide, a web-site that scrapes details from Augur.

The pee tape

The allegation that Russian authorities have compromising substance on U.S. president Donald Trump is one of the stranger stories to emerge from the 2016 election.

The existence of this compromising substance – originating from a collection of paperwork geared up by a previous British intelligence officer doing the job (indirectly) on behalf of Democrats – is generally recognised as the “pee tape” due to its alleged information.

But it hasn’t been proven.

Judging by an Augur current market on the matter, though, chances are close to one in 4 that these kinds of a tape will emerge right before the close of Trump’s very first term.

Betting quantity on the current market has been pretty lower, on the other hand, at the equivalent of much less than $60.

McAfee’s daring prediction

A lot of of the most liquid and beneficial markets on Augur deal with the selling prices of cryptocurrencies.

So at very first look, it can be tricky to see what is actually amazing about one particular current market predicting that the price of bitcoin will move $1 million right before 2020.

But you will find a clue in the simple fact that it can be tagged “McAfee.”

The anti-virus-computer software-creator-turned-cryptocurrency-buzz-person has published many inadvisable tweets. Topping the listing, on the other hand, is one from late 2017, when he predicted that bitcoin would strike $1 million and reiterated a assure he’d built earlier to “take in my dick on national tv” if he proved incorrect.

But a different Augur current market receives to the, um, meat of the tale.

And which is possibly ample Augur for nowadays.

Monkey with banana picture through Jeremy Bishop on Unsplash

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